Opportunity Watching

The Casual Link to Opportunity

See below for summary of of trends and emerging opportunities we are watching with interest.

Please note: anything we comment on is nothing more than commentary or blogging and is never to be taken as advice to you or anyone else. Where an opportunity is described it is in the form of an Introduction Service Only. We do not sell securities, we do not lend or borrow, we never provide anyone with any professional advice of any kind. You must consult your own professional advisers and make your own enquiries with any business, entity, issuer or seller or counter-party in anything we comment on. We are not responsible for what any third party or sector does or does not do. Never take any commentary as the sole source of your decision making. Do your own research.

Caveat Emptor.

Contact email info@casualfinancial.com

Leading Edge - emerging

1. Energy Storage revolution

  • We observed the rise and fall of renewable energies such as wind and solar and note these have a major constraint in not meeting baseload generation needs.
  • We have recently come into contact with a number of opportunities for energy storage.
  • With effective energy storage renewables could be come more economically and technically viable if the energy can be stored and the grid stabilised .
  • The Australian electricity grid requires stabilisation and continuity. One way is with mega batteries such as the TESLA grad stabiliser in South Australia. However better technologies are being developed.
  • A major opportunity exists to do an energy storage revolution where energy can be stored at cheap prices and discharged at high prices - gaining arbitrage.
  • We know some major sources of demand for energy storage, and may know of some potential suppliers of energy storage solutions and components.
  • We also know that solar PV panels have a limited lifecycle and there is a great opportunity with recycling solar PV panels and components.
  • Have a chat with us to explore further.

2. Internet of Things (IoT) and AI - what happens next

  • The digital revolution is already underway.
  • Technology is advancing and the implications of it in other fields has not been fully appreciated.
  • We developed a business model to capitalise on an identified trend. Want to know more? Ask us for an NCNDA.

3. Digital Reserve bank back currencies.

  • We blogged about this 2 years ago. Now PBOC (China) is talking about a digital Yuan. We think these are basically worthless outside of China - but if this concept becomes real in EURO or USD or JPY then it will be revolutionary and impact the entire banking sector.

Slow moving trends

1. Development finance provided by developers

  • We have noticed that property developers are doing less projects themselves and instead lending to other developers who will do projects. This has the effect of facilitating development that would struggle to get finance from the tier 1 and tier 2. Rates are low double digits and this means projects get built.
  • The developers are sitting on cash from the construction boom of 2011 to 2016. Lending money to other developers at 10-12% is better return than the alternatives.

Lower interest rates for longer

  • We don't see any signs of interest rates rising in Australia or USA, UK, EU or Japan anytime soon.
  • Negative rates experiment ended in Denmark - had perverse effects.
  • If we get any inkling that rates are likely to go up we expect share markets to have major corrections down and housing markets to crash.
  • This is a vicious cycle where good intentions to prevent recessions has made it too hard for economies to reform, change tack and pivot away from low growth and secular stagnation.
  • Short term volatility doesn't seem to sway this long term trend.

Off the Radar

China's debt implosion

  • It won't be soon but when it comes it will be catastrophic.
  • Chinese firms are not paying back their debts, money continues to bleed offshore, and the PBOC continues printing near worthless outside of the mainland Yuans.
  • Over 5 Chinese banks have been bailed out, including state owned. More to come as zombie banks and firms on life support rely on the largess of the CCP and PBOC.
  • When this catastrophe hits, expect manufacturing to slow to a halt, and also imports of raw materials to freeze up. Look out Australia.

Immigration Diabetes

  • A diabetic has trouble with insulin and regulating blood sugar.
  • Australia and other developed countries, especially with low birthrates have had record high immigration in the past 20+ years.
  • High immigration in the short term means higher GDP as aggregate demand lifts.
  • Australia has avoided a technical recession since 1993 however per capita recessions keep occurring so we are getting poorer per person but the population is increasing.
  • However this is short term as infrastructure needs to keep up - and it hasn't in Australia.
  • Immigration diabetes is how we describe the diminishing returns from GDP lifting immigration like the sugar high that leads to complications.
  • High immigration, low interest rates and foreign buyers are keeping the Australian housing market up, for now. Any one of these fall and we will see major corrections.

Contact email info@casualfinancial.com

Opportunity Introductions

We are the casual link to opportunity.

We identify trends in markets and from time to time encounter opportunities to do something with that information such as making the introductions.

An analogy could be like matchmaking service putting opportunity seekers in contact with opportunity providers. We introduce the opportunity and you decide what to do next. We do not provide any financial service or professional advice.

Please note, this is not suitable for all parties. Contact us to check if you qualify and seek your own advice - we are not your advisers ever.

 

Cause for Action

Do you recognise an opportunity and want to know more?

 

Casual is derived from the latin casus, meaning cause. Do you have a causation to do more?

 

Contact us for a confidential discussion about a specific opportunity we have identified, or a general discussion of the available connections you might like to meet.

We assert that our activities do not fall within the scope of this warning, we none the less display the following warning as a precaution.

Please note the following warning from ASIC:

Australian Securities and Investments Commission
Corporations Act 2001 — Paragraphs 283GA(1)(a), 741(1)(a), 992B(1)(a) and 1020F(1)(a) — Revocation and Exemption.

Exemption 1:

"Investment in new business carries high risks. It is highly speculative and before investing in any project about which information is given, prospective investors are strongly advised to take appropriate professional advice;

 

(ii)        the information contained in the Publication has been prepared by or on behalf of the person who is proposing to issue or sell the securities or scheme interests and neither the Operator nor the Publisher (if any) has undertaken an independent review of the information contained in the Publication;

 

(iii)       the information contained in the Publication about the proposed business opportunity and the securities or scheme interests is not intended to be the only information on which the investment decision is made and is not a substitute for a disclosure document, Product Disclosure Statement or any other notice that may be required under the Act, as the Act may apply to the investment. Detailed information may be needed to make an investment decision, for example: financial statements; a business plan; information about ownership of intellectual or industrial property; or expert opinions including valuations or auditors' reports;

 

(iv)       prospective investors should be aware that no established market exists for the trading of any securities or scheme interests that may be offered; and

 

(v)        the Publication is subject to this instrument."

 

For further information on the Class order exemption, please consult  ASIC and the relevant legislation:

https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2007B00368

 

Please also re-read our Disclaimer.

DISCLAIMER:

CASUAL FINANCIAL Pty Ltd (ACN 621 573 920) is not an AFSL holder or sublicencee and does not sell securities or provide financial services. Any information described or provided via email or website or any other media that describes an opportunity is in the form of an Introduction Service only and complies with the relevant Class Order exemption. Any information on an opportunity is sourced from the AFSL holder or licensee and/or the issuer or seller and they are responsible for it. You must make your own enquiries and consult your own professional advisers. CASUAL FINANCIAL Pty Ltd (ACN 621 573 920) does not provide legal, business, accounting, financial or investment advice, to you, ever. Any information published or provided by CASUAL FINANCIAL Pty Ltd (ACN 621 573 920) is general in nature, does not take into account your individual circumstances, goals and risks. Comments said or published by CASUAL FINANCIAL Pty Ltd (ACN 621 573 920) are to be taken as blogging, reporting, commentary, description and introduction of opportunities, or trends and not professional advice.  Any email from us may contain privileged or confidential information and that privilege or confidence is not waived. If you have received any email in error please delete that email and tell us. Any views expressed by any employee, director, officer or agent of CASUAL FINANCIAL Pty Ltd (ACN 621 573 920) does not reflect the view of the company unless expressly authorised and characterised as the company's position. All liability excluded to the maximum extent available at law. All rights reserved. Casual Financial Pty Ltd Copyright 2018.